Massachusetts Catholic Conference
March 12, 2004
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The Marriage Debate Continues: Backing into the
Playoffs and "Moneyball"
Switching metaphors from the culinary (making
sausage and jello) to the athletic, two sports topics come to mind when
describing the March 11th votes in the legislature on the marriage
issue. New England sports fans know about "backing into the
playoffs". That's when a team loses its last few games of the
regular season, yet still makes the playoffs because the other teams in
the division keep losing, and lose more often. Baseball fans may also be
familiar with a recent book entitled "Moneyball". It talks
about the new breed of general managers in the major leagues who focus
on arcane statistics to govern player acquisitions and on-the-field
strategy. Both provide apt analogies.
Our side hasn't won yet, but the other side has
lost more
The joint session of state senators and state
representatives spent from 2pm to midnight on March 11th in debate.
Three votes were cast. The first was a vote to "accept" a
proposal by the House and Senate leadership that would reaffirm marriage
as the union of a man and a woman while at the same time mandating
same-sex civil unions equal to marriage. This first vote eliminated an
amendment by Senator Barrios that would have mandated same-sex marriage.
The second was a vote to "substitute" the leadership's civil
union proposal in the place of the Marriage Affirmation & Protection
Amendment or MA & PA. Sadly, this second vote eliminated MA & PA
(136 no to 62 yes).
The final vote was to move the leadership proposal
to "third reading" (a term taken from the parliamentary
process, where the clerk reads a bill for a third time). This vote was
especially critical, because had the proposal not received a majority
vote, the process would have stopped then and there. A majority of the
legislators (121 yes to 77 no) voted to send the proposal to third
reading, then adjourned until March 29th at 10am. That's when the final
stage of the debate for this year will resume. At the third reading
stage, the legislature must approve a constitutional amendment or the
process will stop completely, preventing any amendment from being sent
to the voters.
On all three March 11 votes, especially the second
one, defenders of traditional marriage failed to muster a win. Each
time, the "poison pill" civil union mandate was sent further
along the trail. If this proposal somehow gets on the ballot, the
Catholic Church could not support it even though it has the marriage
part in it. Yet, at the same time we avoided a premature cut-off of the
process. We are still in the running for the playoffs. The civil union
mandate now can be amended in third reading. Thus, we could still
"back in" with a clean amendment dealing only with marriage. A
word about that in a moment.
Advocates for same-sex marriage lost big on the
third vote, however. They failed to derail the process. This vote showed
that almost two-thirds of the legislators oppose the Goodridge
ruling that mandates same-sex marriage. Thus, legislators overwhelmingly
approve of letting the people vote to overturn Goodridge.
It is now clear that same-sex marriage advocates
in the legislature cannot stop the amendment process by themselves.
Given the circumstances, they will have a difficult time persuading
other legislators to join them in that goal. In effect, they more than
likely will "miss the playoffs."
A look at the numbers
In third reading beginning on March 29th, the goal
is to amend the leadership civil union proposal in such a way as to
provide the voters with a clean, up or down vote on marriage. Paying
attention to the numbers, that is, who voted which way and why, provides
some insight about our chances of success.
The Republicans in the House switched their votes
en masse to support the leadership proposal on the third vote March 11th
even though they opposed the civil union mandate. That switch provided a
necessary margin of victory. They did so to put themselves in a position
to negotiate with the Democratic leadership at the third reading stage.
A look at the numbers reveals that the leadership needs the Republicans
in order to get some sort of civil union mandate approved.
That gives the Republicans leverage to make a
demand. Either make the final constitutional amendment palatable by
splitting it into two amendments, one dealing with marriage like the MA
& PA, the other dealing with civil unions. Republicans would promise
to support the civil union amendment as well on the grounds that they
are "letting the people decide" on both issues. Or agree
instead to adopt the amendment proposed by Rep. Loscocco. It reaffirms
traditional marriage while mandating civil unions without referring to
same-sex relationships, and leaves their definition up to the
legislature.
If the Democratic leadership balks, the
Republicans would vote no on the current proposal in third reading,
killing the whole process, even though they do not support same-sex
marriage.
If nothing is sent to the people, Republicans
stand to gain the most. They can recruit candidates to run against
Democrats on the theme that "you denied the people the right to
vote, and a fair one at that, on marriage". Given the intensity of
concern about same-sex marriage and judicial overreaching at the
grassroots level, there would undoubtedly be more Republicans in the
legislature next year. That prospect might encourage Democratic
legislators to urge the leadership to make the deal with the
Republicans.
All this points to the possibility, but not the
certainty, of ultimate victory. Getting into the playoffs is not the
same as winning them. Pressure at the grassroots must continue. We have
to send the message: "Give us a clean vote on marriage--don't force
on the people the poison pill of same-sex civil unions".
The season has been long and hard-fought. We are
all weary. Yet this is the time for champions to be made.
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From time to time the Massachusetts Catholic
Conference staff will report by email on public policy events of concern
to Catholics in Massachusetts. "The Hill" refers to the
federal Capital in Washington D.C. and also to the State House in
Boston, both of which are located on high ground. The Massachusetts
Catholic Conference is the public policy office for the Roman Catholic
Church in the Commonwealth, governed directly by the four Bishops
serving as episcopal ordinaries of the Archdiocese of Boston, and the
Dioceses of Fall River, Springfield, and Worcester. "Notes from the
Hill" is not an official statement of the Bishops or MCC. Catholics
in the Commonwealth interested in signing up as members of MCC-Net, the
legislative alert network for Catholics in Massachusetts may do so
online at www.macathconf.org, or by calling the toll-free phone sign-up
number of 1-866-367-0558.
