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The Republicans in the House switched their votes
en masse to support the leadership proposal on the third vote March 11th
even though they opposed the civil union mandate. That switch provided a
necessary margin of victory. They did so to put themselves in a position
to negotiate with the Democratic leadership at the third reading stage.
A look at the numbers reveals that the leadership needs the Republicans
in order to get some sort of civil union mandate approved.
That gives the Republicans leverage to make a
demand. Either make the final constitutional amendment palatable by
splitting it into two amendments, one dealing with marriage like the MA
& PA, the other dealing with civil unions. Republicans would promise
to support the civil union amendment as well on the grounds that they
are "letting the people decide" on both issues. Or agree
instead to adopt the amendment proposed by Rep. Loscocco. It reaffirms
traditional marriage while mandating civil unions without referring to
same-sex relationships, and leaves their definition up to the
legislature.
If the Democratic leadership balks, the
Republicans would vote no on the current proposal in third reading,
killing the whole process, even though they do not support same-sex
marriage.
If nothing is sent to the people, Republicans
stand to gain the most. They can recruit candidates to run against
Democrats on the theme that "you denied the people the right to
vote, and a fair one at that, on marriage". Given the intensity of
concern about same-sex marriage and judicial overreaching at the
grassroots level, there would undoubtedly be more Republicans in the
legislature next year. That prospect might encourage Democratic
legislators to urge the leadership to make the deal with the
Republicans.
All this points to the possibility, but not the
certainty, of ultimate victory. Getting into the playoffs is not the
same as winning them. Pressure at the grassroots must continue. We have
to send the message: "Give us a clean vote on marriage--don't force
on the people the poison pill of same-sex civil unions".
The season has been long and hard-fought. We are
all weary. Yet this is the time for champions to be made.
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From time to time the Massachusetts Catholic
Conference staff will report by email on public policy events of concern
to Catholics in Massachusetts. "The Hill" refers to the
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Glory to God |